While activity levels were starting to show improvement over 2024 levels in August and September, any signs of significant sustained momentum waned in October as sales for the month were trending behind last year as I write this article.

(Side note: Last October I remember we felt things were turning around – but that reality was short lived as well as it turns out).
 
Of course, there are always conflicting things that happen that make you question where things are really heading. In the month where we saw lethargic overall sales – we also saw multiple offers on an in-town property priced over $2 million – and a couple higher end condo sales.

So, any sales actually happening are driven by specific properties that come to market – not a broad based rebound or sustained recovery (And there is a good chance the ones that are selling are those 10 out of 10 properties as I’ve referenced in the past).
 
The daily news headlines you see and hear obviously don’t help – and it will take more certainty in the economy (and positive news) before things really start to turn around. Yes, continuing lower interest rates will help – but rates alone will not be the answer. 
 
It needs to be noted that real estate is very local. After all, there are areas out west, out east and in Quebec where the real estate market is active – and prices are actually increasing.

But when you look at average pricing of the areas that are still seeing healthy real estate markets, it underscores the other big issue – those areas have much more affordable prices compared to Southwestern Ontario.

For many, our area simply remains unaffordable – especially for our younger generation – even with the decreasing prices we have seen since the 2022 peak.
 
One observation that is somewhat anecdotal at this point: we seem to be witnessing a market where higher end properties are selling while ones at lower price points struggle to sell.

Historically, a market recovers from the bottom up (i.e.  the $500,000 sellers move up to a new $750,000 home, and those sellers move up to a $1,000,000 home, etc.). Not so much the case right now.

It’s almost as if there is a “missing middle” – driven by unaffordability and a relative lack of first-time buyers. Speaking of first-time buyers, many are closer to 40 years old vs 20 years old – which is another factor in the evolving real estate market.

It is concerning that part of the evolution is a wider spread between the “have” and “have nots”. Not really healthy for our society.
 
In the short term, activity will be muted as is normally the case this time of year, with downward pressure on pricing continuing.  
 
As always, I keep a close eye on developing trends within our local market as I crunch the data on a weekly basis. The words “tricky”, “spotty”, “unpredictable” and “uncertain” continue to be accurate descriptors of our local market.

I hope you enjoy my monthly article, and if you want more frequent or additional info on the real estate market, jump onto my Instagram page, https://www.instagram.com/georgemochrie/ or Facebook page, https://www.facebook.com/georgemochrierealtor. And of course, feel free to call me anytime at 519-766-3716.
 
Until next month, take care.
 
George