While there was a little flurry of homes selling firm the first 10 days of May, as I write this article on May 19th right after the long weekend, it is looking like year to date sales will still not top 2025 sales activity – keeping in
mind many thought 2025 was going to be the low point in the Fergus, Elora and area real estate market. 

So far, 2026 has not been the rebound year some had predicted. At least May sales will be higher than April 2026 (based on sales to date), so there is some hope for the market yet. But of course, I would be VERY concerned if May was lower than April. May and June should be the highest months for activity.

I have a few observations to make about the local market. First, I would say the Guelph and Kitchener-Waterloo markets have more life activity-wise compared to our market per capita). That is driven by the fact there is more choice of lower priced real estate for sale in those markets.

And affordability is largely driving this market right now. Yes, to many, our market looks expensive compared to markets around us.

So, if affordability is more important than small town living, chances are those buyers are buying in markets elsewhere (but if you are looking for small town living with a great vibe, culture and quality of life – Centre Wellington is hard to beat. Sometimes it’s more than just about price).

Month to date, there have been only 5 sales of in-town homes over $1 million. Most activity is between $600k – $899k (i.e. affordability). A very concerning stat going into May was the fact on average only 2.7 out of 10 homes currently listed are selling (which means 7.3 are not).

That is not good. Even 4 out of 10 would be considered a strong BUYER’S market – so we are deep into a buyer’s market at this point.

Once we start going over 6 out of 10, that would be considered going into a seller’s market. We have a LONG way to get there.

Average days on market of homes that are selling is 59 days and increasing. Of course, many homes have been on the market for months at this point. Very few are selling in a week – and even fewer still are getting more than one offer.

Even at the $600k- $900k price point where we are seeing more activity – the home needs to be priced well, nicely presented and compare favourably to the competition in order to attract offers. Over $1 million your home definitely needs to stand out and be aggressively priced to get showings – never mind offers.

Yes, it’s a challenging market for sure – and many sellers will have to reconsider at what price they are prepared to reduce to in order to get sold. Maybe it’s not the time to sell for some.

Or perhaps it’s time to do some overdue updates to the home so it presents better and has a greater chance of selling for the best price once you do go to market. Homes needing updating or having overdue maintenance are getting punished in this market.

Is the market going to start changing? Not anytime soon in my opinion – not significantly so anyway. But downward pressure on pricing does continue in our market. There is a good chance that if your home doesn’t sell this month, it will sell for less next month.

The fact that long term mortgage rates actually edged HIGHER in May doesn’t help. So, if circumstances dictate that you have to make a move at this time, pricing it right and good presentation are key.

Until next month, take care.

George