September brought more sales but the market still leans toward buyers

The September 2026 real estate numbers for Elora, Fergus and surrounding areas tell a somewhat mixed story.

On the surface, there are some positive signs. The number of homes sold was up compared with September 2025, and total year-to-date sales are also ahead of last year.

But look a little deeper and the picture becomes less rosy.

Home prices remain significantly lower than they were a year ago, properties are taking longer to sell, and the number of listings that have expired without selling has climbed sharply. Perhaps most importantly, the year-to-date sales-to-listings ratio sits at 39.64%, just barely above the report’s 39% threshold for a balanced market.

So while the initial report and others may describe the market as balanced, there are several reasons to argue that buyers continue to have the upper hand in Elora, Fergus and surrounding areas.

Home prices remain well below last year

Perhaps the clearest sign that the market has not fully balanced is what is happening with prices.

The September median sale price was $750,000, down 11.24% from $845,000 a year ago. The average sale price also fell, declining 5.64% to $934,443.

The year-to-date picture tells a similar story.

The median sale price so far in 2026 is $750,000, compared with $823,750 at the same point last year—a decline of 8.95%.

The average sale price, meanwhile, is actually up 3.06% year over year, reaching $873,519. But that number needs some context. There have been 12 sales over $2 million so far this year, compared with just six last year, which is enough to have a noticeable impact on the average. At the same time, sales in the $750,000–$999,999 range are down 7.44%, while $1-million-to-$2-million sales are down 1.32%.

In other words, the median, which is often a better indication of what is happening to the typical home, is telling a much different story than the average.

The typical home is selling for considerably less than it was a year ago.

More homes are selling—but that doesn’t necessarily mean the market is balanced

There were 46 homes sold in September, up 4.55% from the 44 sales recorded in September 2025.

Year to date, there have been 371 sales, compared with 358 last year, an increase of 3.63%.

That’s certainly encouraging from a sales-activity perspective.

However, the increase in sales isn’t particularly dramatic, especially when compared with the broader changes happening in the market. New listings are also up year to date, with 936 new listings compared with 915 last year, an increase of 2.3%.

The result is a year-to-date sales-to-listings ratio of 39.64%.

And this is where the “balanced market” designation starts to look a little questionable.

The report’s own threshold for a balanced market is 39%, meaning the current 39.64% figure is only 0.64 percentage points above that line.

That’s hardly a convincing margin.

In fact, the monthly September sales-to-listings ratio was 42.99%, down from 45.36% a year ago.

So yes, the market technically sits on the balanced side of the report’s threshold, but only just.

Expired listings are telling an important story

One of the strongest indicators that buyers continue to have leverage is the number of homes that are coming off the market without selling.

There were 167 expired listings year to date in 2026, compared with 114 at the same point last year.

That’s an increase of 46.49%.

That’s a significant jump.

And it’s particularly notable when you consider that new listings have only increased 2.3% over the same period.

In other words, we’re not seeing a huge influx of new inventory but a much larger number of existing listings are failing to sell.

That can be an important signal that some sellers are still struggling to meet the price expectations of today’s buyers.

Homes are taking longer to sell

Another indicator that doesn’t exactly scream “balanced market” is how long properties are sitting on the market.

The year-to-date average days on market has climbed to 50.78 days, compared with 45.67 days last year.

That’s an increase of more than 11%.

For sellers, an extra five days might not sound dramatic on its own. But when combined with lower median prices and a sharp increase in expired listings, it paints a more compelling picture.

Buyers have more time to consider their options and more opportunity to negotiate.

So, is it really a balanced market?

Technically, according to the report’s definition, yes.

But the broader evidence suggests something closer to a buyer-leaning market.

Consider the combination:

• Median sale price is down 8.95% year to date.
• September’s median sale price is down 11.24% year over year.
• Average days on market are up more than 11%.
• Expired listings are up 46.49%.
• The year-to-date sales-to-listings ratio is only 39.64%—barely above the 39% balanced-market threshold.
• The monthly sales-to-listings ratio actually declined compared with September 2025.

That’s a lot of evidence pointing in the same direction.

The strongest argument for balance is that sales are up slightly and the sales-to-listings ratio remains just above the report’s threshold. But that doesn’t necessarily mean buyers and sellers have equal negotiating power.

What does this mean for buyers?

For buyers, there are still some encouraging opportunities.

Prices are considerably lower than they were a year ago based on the median, homes are taking longer to sell, and a significant number of listings are expiring without a sale.

That combination can create opportunities for buyers who are prepared, patient and willing to negotiate.

It doesn’t mean every seller will accept a low offer. Well-priced and desirable properties can still attract attention, particularly when they are presented well and priced appropriately.

But buyers don’t necessarily need to feel pressured to jump at the first property they see.

What does this mean for sellers?

For sellers, September’s numbers reinforce the importance of pricing correctly from the beginning.

The days of simply putting a home on the market and expecting strong appreciation may be behind us for now.

With the median price down almost 9% year to date, homes taking longer to sell and expired listings up nearly 50%, buyers have more choices and more negotiating power.

A home that is priced too aggressively may sit, attract fewer serious buyers and eventually expire, potentially requiring a price adjustment or a different marketing strategy.

The bottom line

For Elora, Fergus and surrounding areas, September’s numbers may technically put us in “balanced market” territory, but the broader evidence suggests that buyers continue to hold a meaningful advantage.

For sellers, this is a market where pricing and presentation matter more than ever. For buyers, it may be a market worth taking your time in.

And as we’ve seen throughout much of 2026, one month’s improvement in sales doesn’t necessarily mean the market has turned the corner.

Full Report: Royal LePage® Royal City, Brokerage. Centre Wellington Market Report. September 2026: