I am writing this article near the end of March just as Mark Carney is announcing the election. So at least one matter in the list of uncertainties will add a bit of clarity to the overall situation moving forward.

Hopefully. While I stay away from too much political talk in my columns, my only comment is that this may be a time for the federal government to have a strong mandate. Which means a majority for someone. I guess we will find out shortly.

Well, as far as the local real estate market goes, we seem to have a bit of a sustained trend forming. March sales continued to trend behind 2024 levels – which means the first quarter of 2025 has been a relatively weak market overall.

This seems to be the case across much of Ontario. If you include December, we have now seen a downward trend line for 4 months in a row.

We can’t blame the snow anymore – it has melted away. Which leaves the ongoing tariff terror and resulting economic uncertainties out there as reasons why the market is slower. That isn’t going to change much in the short term. But we need to dig deeper into the numbers to understand there is more at play here.

Centre Wellington sales have been low – period. So, I even did a deep dive into larger markets around us like Guelph. Guelph sales are also below 2024 levels, but one observation is worth noting. While there were a few days of March still to go when I analyzed the stats, 64% of all sales in Guelph were homes $800,000 or less. So only 36% above $800,000. That is worth pondering.

Bottom line – affordability is a major underlying issue in the real estate market. Those buying homes for $800,000 or less are living in the same uncertain times as those that may be looking for homes over $800,000. Yet homes under this price point are selling ok.

The rest of the market – not so much – especially as you get further over $1 million. Even cash buyers are hesitant – as their investments have been taking a hit as well.

As expected, more homes started to get listed for sale in March, so with lower sales, unsold inventory levels are starting to creep up to higher than historical levels, especially as you start getting to the $1 million dollar (and higher) range.

So – is the spring real estate market simply delayed – or cancelled? April and May are becoming more important if this market is going to start showing signs of life. It’s not all doom and gloom of course.

If you are thinking of selling a home priced around $800,000 or less – or have a bungalow to sell – there is reasonable demand in those segments.

Maybe the whole market will come to life in April and May? We shall see. I would say if you are a buyer looking right now – there are good opportunities. The real estate market will rebound – the unknown is when.

I will say I am doing a lot of home valuations these days – so I definitely know people are thinking of selling. The question is: Is now the right time to sell?

For honest, straightforward real estate advice, feel free to reach out anytime at 519-766-3716.

Until next month, take care.

George