To borrow that famous quote: “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”

The thing is, you can pick and choose statistics to make any argument you want. This is definitely the case in real estate. And then there are truly some outliers when it comes to statistics – and the June stats for Centre Wellington (Fergus, Elora & area) certainly qualified in this regard.

Prices up 13%? The market has finally bottomed and things are taking off! Really? No. In a small market like ours, a few higher-end sales can really skew stats.

Sometimes you have to dig a bit deeper. And the fact that larger markets around us like Guelph and Cambridge continued to show further price decreases better reflects reality (surprisingly, Guelph even showed a 23% DECREASE in ACTIVITY in June).

And yes, pricing in Toronto/GTA continues to drop as well. While sales activity picked up in CW in June, month to date in July as I write this article it would appear we are trending close to the lower activity of July 2025.

So, one month does not make a trend – and there does not appear to be any real momentum building as of yet.

The reality is July & August is always slower in our market – so we will need to see what happens in September and October (i.e. – The Fall Market) before we start making any predictions where this market is headed – including when “we have hit bottom”.

The other reality of course is the fact we will only know if we have hit bottom when the market has already started to go up. Aside from price, one other stat I follow closely is sales to listing ratio – or put another way – months of inventory (i.e. how long will it take to sell all of the existing inventory based on current sales activity).

This is an important statistic to track the health of the market – and it is improving, albeit slowly. But we are definitely still in a buyer’s market.

Real estate is local. So, when you hear statistics about the “Canadian real estate market”, those  “average” stats are frankly not very helpful at all given the differences in markets across this geographically large country.

Plus, stats from large housing markets like Toronto and Vancouver skew the numbers as well. In fact, I will go a step further when it comes to analyzing statistics. Even in a smaller market like ours, the market is “splintering” more and more into “micro-markets” – and each part of the market is behaving differently.

Two storey homes in newer subdivisions are struggling (a lot of inventory/competition for sale in this category). Condos continue to be a challenge. Homes in more mature areas and bungalows are doing better.

Country properties continue to outperform. And yes, homes under $1 million are doing better than over $1 million. Homes $2 million and over – a tough part of the market in Centre Wellington right now.

A few more brand-new builder homes have started to sell thanks to the government builder bailout HST holiday program (thanks to you – the taxpayer that is). This program has actually impacted the sale of some resale home sellers unfortunately.

September is just around the corner, so if you are thinking of selling sometime this Fall, now is the time to reach out and start the conversation.

As I mentioned above, every part of the market is different, so depending on your property type, location and price range, coming up with the right marketing and selling strategy for your specific situation is important.

For buyers, we would be happy to navigate you through this equally challenging and confusing market. Many homes may be sitting for lengthy periods unsold – but others are selling quickly.

Let us help you figure out this market. Feel free to reach out anytime – contact George at 519-766-3716 (gm******@*********ge.ca) or Amanda 519-820-0506  (am***********@*********ge.ca).