As we head into November, continued uncertainty remains in the overall real estate market, with mixed economic data and evolving geopolitical issues. I’m writing this article ahead of the October 23rd interest rate announcement – with a debate ongoing as to whether we will see a quarter point or half point decrease in the bank rate.

You will know by the time you read this. And this magazine will be hitting your mailbox just before election day in the U.S. – results of which will be another part of the large picture moving forward.

Locally, as we head into a seasonally slower time of year for real estate, October 2024 sales activity is going to be very similar to 2023. So – pretty slow – but not deteriorating further. My prediction for higher activity in the last half of 2024 was in part based on my assumption we would see more distressed selling in the marketplace.

But with rates now decreasing, we may have escaped a worst-case scenario – with perhaps reason to be more optimistic moving forward.

Also, as much as we often focus on buyers not buying as being the sole reason for lower activity – lower than anticipated NEW listing activity is also a reason. Yes, inventory has been relatively high – but more so because of many homes taking a lot longer to sell – many requiring further price reductions.

A lot of listings have been “re-lists”/ price reductions of existing listings, not brand new listings. One cohort that didn’t list as much in 2024 were older sellers – who are often selling to then just rent in their older years – or making a move to a retirement home.

While some of this may be partially explained by an increasing trend toward “aging in place”, I still see more listing activity in this segment of the market happening in 2025.

What are we seeing in the local market right now? New listings that are priced right are selling. Older listings that have made price adjustments are starting to sell – although results are mixed. Over $1.3 million continues to be generally slower – but we did sell a few higher priced homes in October.

Condo sales continue to be sluggish – although I was fortunate to sell my remaining condo listings last month. Showing activity was higher in October, indicating buyers are out there – but still hesitant to make offers (that sellers are willing to accept).

While some may say I have been rather “bearish” on the real estate market in 2024, even though I don’t think we are out of the woods as far as some economic headwinds are concerned, I do believe we are going to see a more robust real estate market in 2025 – largely due to the fact we have had both buyers and sellers on the sidelines for an extended period – and at some point this will change.

Whether that will be in the first half of 2025 or last half of 2025 … well, my crystal ball is not THAT good.

I know many of you must be getting sick and tired of me saying this – but I’m going to say it again anyway – correct pricing is key. Even being off by $30,000 right now can mean the difference between selling and not even getting showings.

While downward pressure on pricing will ease in 2025, there are simply too many overpriced homes currently on the market. So don’t be confused when I say downward pressure is easing and then say prices need to come down in the same sentence. It’s just that too many sellers – and realtors – have not priced homes given the current market.

Let me be frank – the crazy real estate days of early 2022 were almost 3 years ago. Much has changed since. Will real estate prices go up again? Yes… just not right now (If I could tell you exactly when I’d still be on my favourite Greek beach).

For an honest, straightforward conversation on your real estate needs, feel free to call me anytime at 519-766-3716.

Until next month, take care.

George