Venezuela. Greenland. Iran. Lots of ICE in Minnesota. And don’t forget about Gaza and Ukraine. Even more tariff threats.

A changing world of trade that includes EV’s coming from China to Canada. Throw in a good ol’ Canadian winter for the second year in a row. Guess what? Uncertainty and unpredictability aren’t going away any time soon.

Hard to concentrate on real estate, right? Lots of “noise” out there deflecting our attention. Few buyers and sellers were thinking about real estate in January.

Yes, this year got off to another slow start. Mostly re-lists of 2025 properties that didn’t sell with a few new listings sprinkled in – and few sales – sums it up for January (I am writing this near the end of January – final sales activity is on trend to be slightly ahead of 2025 – but still low).

At this point, I am delaying most of my new listings until mid to late February when things should start picking up.

Low activity levels will skew average price data for January, but on the ground I can say that downward pressure on pricing continued.

But I also know buyers will be looking for new inventory in February – so I stand by my prediction that if there is going to be any sort of temporary bump in pricing, it will happen between the end of February and mid-April.

So, if you are a seller, I say the last part of February to early April is a good time to list for most. What we see over the next 90 days is going to go a long way to setting the table for the market for the rest of 2026.

If sales activity in the next 90 days does not beat 2025 levels – well, it’s going to be another very long year in real estate – and not in a good way. But I remain optimistic at this point.

Locally, while we have a lot of inventory for sale in newer subdivision settings, I would say we could use more older “character type” homes close to downtown cores available for sale on the market based on my buyer analysis.

And while I really cannot comment on the Toronto market, it will be interesting to see if condos in our market start to come back into favour in 2026. Based on early anecdotal observation… maybe.

There will be many residential mortgages coming due in the next 4 months – where homeowner mortgage rates will go from the 1.7% range to the 4% range – which will negatively affect payments.

I don’t think that will necessarily impact the market significantly at this point – but no doubt a few people may decide to sell/downsize once they start getting their renewal notices.

Now, my crystal ball isn’t necessarily better than anyone else’s. But I think our local market will be one of transition in 2026 – where pricing doesn’t increase but activity eventually does – with the first evidence of a recovery in pricing starting in 2027 and continuing into 2028. And by recovery, I mean a slight uptick – not a return to 2022. Let’s see if I regret that prediction.My annual reminder: If you need a formal written home valuation for probate / estate purposes, I provide this service to anyone in the Centre Wellington area at no cost – and no obligation.

Thinking of Selling? Feel free to give me a call anytime at 519-766-3716 to discuss your real estate needs.

You can also get an online valuation for your home through my website as well. And remember you can follow me online on Facebook at George Mochrie Realtor and Instagram @georgemochrie

Until next month, take care.

George