I’m writing this article a little earlier this month as I prepare to embark on a short road trip to one of my “happy places” – Thunder Bay (some may be surprised by that choice, but not those who know me). I love the drive there, with the usual stop at the Terry Fox Memorial of course. And a side trip to Silver Islet – located at the end of Sleeping Giant Provincial Park. Something about that place slows my heartbeat (and blood pressure) down to a state of pure bliss. Only the Greek islands give me a similar feeling.

The current real estate market does not help one’s blood pressure. Activity was actually higher locally in July, but it took price cuts by sellers in many cases to get their homes sold. And while activity was higher, this is in comparison to a very slow June 2024 and weak sales in July 2023.

So, the local market is still not what you would call overly robust even though July outpaced June (which is not normal). Many markets around us saw the usual decrease in activity in July.

As is normally the case, new listing activity slowed in July, and for the first time in several months total active listings for sale took a little dip – although inventory is still higher than the same time last year.

I am having a lot of conversations with sellers on selling price expectations. As I mentioned last month, many sellers will still need to make further price concessions to sell in the current market – and even with lower interest rates – I continue to predict pricing will not see any real upward pressure for the balance of 2024.

Some sellers may elect to wait until later in 2025 and 2026 hoping for higher pricing. But higher pricing is not guaranteed. Remember the stagnant house pricing for the whole decade of the 1990’s?

Speaking of pricing, I know many realtors will use average prices when quoting stats to paint a more upbeat picture of the market. But in a smaller market like ours with relatively low activity numbers, it takes only a few higher priced sales to skew average pricing and paint a rosier picture.

As a top listing and selling realtor, I’m certainly not a pessimist. But I like to give an accurate picture of the market. So, I use median pricing when analyzing the market rather than average. And in that regard, pricing is down both year over year and month over month in the Centre Wellington and area market.

Despite it being a challenging market, I am still forecasting a more active final half of 2024 compared to 2023 – especially September through November. But proper pricing will be key (Combined with great marketing and staging of course). Your home needs to stand out. Otherwise, your home won’t sell.

As a realtor close to the action and with an ear to the ground – I know buyers are out there. But those buyers are in no mood to overpay and are willing to wait. I would note country homes are generally outperforming the overall market at the moment. And condos continue to underperform. In my experience condos seem to be more cyclical when it comes to demand cycles. But even I don’t have the answer as to when we will see the next upward swing. Other than it will seem to change overnight when it does happen.

The first week of September is when the Fall Real Estate Market starts. If you are thinking of selling in September or October, now is the time to touch base with your realtor. Have questions – or looking for advice? Feel free to reach out to me anytime at 519-766-3716 or email gmochrie@royallepage.ca.

Until next month, take care.

George