We are already 3 months into the new year, and now officially in the Spring Real Estate Market for 2024.

As reported last month, markets around us like Guelph and Kitchener Waterloo continue to get more competitive for buyers, while here in Centre Wellington, Arthur & area we are not seeing a lot of multiple offer situations to date.

Sales activity is picking up in our market, and more listings are now hitting the market. However, there are no indications there will be a flood of listings yet.

Inventory really hasn’t increased much over February (keeping in mind our inventory is already higher per capita than the larger markets surrounding us). But it is early days in the spring market.

I have used the word unpredictable quite a bit over the last few years (as evidenced by all the wrong forecasts by economists) – but I’m going to borrow a colleague’s description for the current market instead: choppy.

Activity fluctuates from week to week and selling prices are under upward pressure in select segments of the market while some areas are pretty stagnant or still witnessing softening of prices.

So, you certainly cannot paint the market with the same brush as you often hear or read in the national headlines. I am not forecasting any significant increase in pricing in our local market for 2024 (of course, some properties will always outperform the overall market).

There are a lot of variables that will impact the market moving forward. On the interest rate front, we have gone from predictions of 6 rate cuts in 2024 to … are we going to see any cuts this year?

As I’m writing this article, Canadian inflation rate was just announced indicating a slight decrease in inflation (2 days ago they were predicting a slight uptick!). Best guess is we might see a small quarter point decrease in June? Maybe.

But supply and demand will largely dictate how the real estate market behaves for the rest of the year. One question to be answered is: Will all the mortgages coming due in 2024 (going from 2ish % to 5ish % – or more) have an impact on the market as the year progresses? We shall see.

Locally, there have been some interesting trends to note. Bungalows on larger lots or acreage have done well. Condos over $700,000 continue to struggle somewhat. And 2 storey homes – which have also struggled – are starting to sell once appropriate price amendments are made.

And more properties that have been on the market for some time are finally selling. Affordability remains a large issue. There continues to be a lack of lower priced homes for sale – which skews the data when you are seeing average price stats.

Recent stats may indicate that pricing is increasing when overall that really is not the case. As we get more data and more sales activity moving forward, the stats will show a more accurate picture.

Based on what I’m seeing on the ground, there is definitely pent-up demand out there from people wanting to buy homes. But it’s complicated.

Some buyers are still not confident enough to jump. Or concerned that prices are still too high and might come down. Or waiting for rates to decrease. Others have to sell their own property before they make the move – and since not all market segments are behaving the same, it makes things a bit more challenging.

Suffice to say we are not seeing a lot of firm offers out there in our market right now.

I am continuing to predict a very active Spring market; it will be interesting to see how the remainder of April plays out. If you are thinking of selling, now is definitely the time to start talking to your realtor.

Don’t wait for all your flowers to bloom – otherwise you will miss the prime selling season.

Want to discuss your real estate needs or want a free, no obligation home valuation? Feel free to call me anytime at 519-766-3716.

Until next month, take care.

George