Many will notice I didn’t run my regular update in the Booster last month. Yes, I was away – but that alone didn’t stop me. The truth is I wanted to see more data before I weighed back in on where the market is headed.

As you recall, Centre Wellington had a promising August with increased sales activity (even though it turned out markets around us did not see that trend). Made one think local sentiment was changing in a positive direction.

But as I write this column mid-October, it is clear any momentum was again short lived, and the market is starting to look a lot like last Fall – which was not a great real estate market.

In Centre Wellington, September average pricing was down 5.64% compared to the same month last year, and median pricing was actually down 11.24%. Not the result we were looking for.

Activity was similar to September 2025. So far in October, activity has slowed further to the point where 2026 activity may not even match 2025 levels.

So, what is going on? Well, geopolitical issues to date have not been getting any better, and now we have the fact interest rates are continuing to edge up. Long term rates have already been going up, but now there is the serious possibility short term rates will start to go higher as well.

This is not good news for the real estate market. The Canadian jobs market is not looking very rosy either. And we all know about the cost of gas and groceries. Doesn’t take much to change momentum and sentiment in the market.

Uncertainty is a momentum killer (As I noted above, I’m writing this column before the Nov. 3rd U.S. mid-terms… will the results start to reshape world affairs a bit? We shall see).

Are homes still selling? Yes. But the market is tricky – and pricing and presentation are the key components as to why some homes are selling and others are not. Overall, unsold inventory remains at elevated levels – so buyers have lots to choose from in certain segments of the market.

Interestingly, in a contradictory way, we actually do not have enough inventory in some parts of the market (Example: not enough character homes in downtown area of Elora).

At this point, it certainly looks like we are going to have a very muted Fall Market here in Centre Wellington, as we start to look forward to 2027. And while a lot of realtors pin hopes on “pent up demand” driving the market to higher activity levels in 2027, I point out there may be “pent up supply” as well (i.e. a lot of sellers delayed selling in 2026 that may come to market next year).

So, if we see even higher listing activity next year, that may counter the demand side of things. In other words, I do not see any upward pressure on pricing anytime soon – even if sales activity actually improves in 2027.

Thinking of Selling? Feel free to reach out anytime at 519-766-3716 for honest, straightforward real estate advice.

Until next month, take care.

George