At the end of August, I noted that there were early indicators that things were changing in the local real estate market. As I write this article near the end of September, it appears final sales numbers will be higher than last September – albeit slightly.

So, we have back-to-back months with marginal improvement on a year over year basis (year to date we are still behind 2024). Noteworthy – yes.

Am I going to join with all the Tik Tok realtors saying all is good and the market is about to take off? No. 
 
First, keep in mind 2024 sales were not great. So, we are comparing to a very low bar. It is true there seems to be some more action on the ground (i.e. offers & showing activity), but it is far too early to proclaim we have hit bottom, and the housing market is rebounding.

As a realtor, it is nice to see that in September we finally sold a number of properties that have been on the market for extended time periods – and that there have been a number of local residential sales over $1.5 million.

A bit of life has returned to the condo market. I also sold a couple investment related properties in September (haven’t said that in a while).

There have even been a few over asking price sales in Centre Wellington. Encouraging – but still premature to read too much into those observations. 
 
While sellers that have adjusted pricing to fall in line with current market conditions have been rewarded with offers, many sellers who are holding firm on price continue to see their homes languish on the market – only to witness newer listings hit the market with sharper pricing sell quickly.

Buyers are ready to offer when the price is right – but equally happy to wait if the price is not. While there is indeed sales activity happening, I would not characterize it as a broad-based recovery or a sign of significant momentum in the market as a whole.
 
Why am I remaining so cautious you ask? Well, there is simply not enough data to convince me to be otherwise. Pricing is continuing to drop in the GTA – and our markets are all interconnected in one way or the other.

Builders continue to struggle to sell existing inventory. And while it is great for people with mortgages renewing shortly that the Bank of Canada has resumed cutting the overnight lending rate, it should be the reasons why they are cutting that concern us.

Red flags continue to show in the economy – and a weakening job market is a major cause for concern. People who fear their job may not be there tomorrow tend not to buy houses.

Of course, affordability in general remains a real issue in our area. I’m sorry, having the federal government build 4000 modular homes is not even close to the answer for our long-term housing challenges. 
 
Don’t get me wrong – not all is bad out there. Economic messages are certainly mixed. I personally know of a few businesses that are not only doing ok – but expanding. Even ones you think would be negatively impacted by tariffs.

So, there are good news stories too. I just need to see more good news before I’m convinced what I’m seeing is the light at the end of the tunnel – and not a freight train hurtling toward me.      
 
For honest, straightforward real estate advice, reach out to me anytime at 519-766-3716.
 
Until next month, take care.
 
George