October brings a noticeable slowdown, and more evidence that buyers still have the advantage

If there’s one thing the October 2026 real estate numbers for Elora, Fergus and surrounding areas make clear, it’s that the market is still facing some challenges.

The latest report continues to classify our local market as “balanced,” pointing to a year-to-date sales-to-listings ratio of 39.32%, just above its 39% threshold.

But that label becomes harder to defend when you look at what’s actually happening.

October saw fewer homes sell than the same month last year, lower sales volume, declining prices and a weaker sales-to-listings ratio. Looking at the year-to-date numbers, the median sale price is down more than 7.5%, expired listings are up 34%, and homes are taking longer to sell.

So while a few of the year-to-date numbers are holding relatively steady, the broader picture suggests that buyers continue to have the upper hand, and sellers are still feeling the pressure.

Home prices continue to move in the wrong direction

Let’s start with what is arguably the most important indicator: home prices.

The median sale price in October was $749,500, down 4.52% compared with October 2025. The average sale price also declined, falling 2.81% to $915,111.

Looking at the year-to-date numbers, the median sale price is now $750,000, compared with $811,892 at the same point last year. That’s a decline of 7.62%.

The average sale price, on the other hand, is up 2.42% year over year, sitting at $877,678. But once again, the average doesn’t tell the whole story.

There have been 14 sales over $2 million so far in 2026, compared with nine at this point last year. Those higher-end transactions can have a noticeable impact on the average, even while the median price continues to fall.

In fact, sales in the $750,000–$999,999 range are down 10.22% year to date, and sales between $1 million and $2 million are down 3.61%.

The takeaway? The average sale price may be holding up, but the median suggests the typical home is selling for considerably less than it was a year ago.

October sales activity took a step backward

After a couple months of relatively encouraging sales activity, October brought a noticeable slowdown.

There were 36 homes sold in October, compared with 41 in October 2025. That’s a decline of 12.2%.

Total sales volume also fell considerably, dropping 14.66% from approximately $38.6 million last October to $32.94 million this year.

New listings were down slightly as well, with 99 properties coming to market compared with 104 a year ago.

Now, to be fair, the year-to-date numbers are a little more positive. There have been 407 homes sold so far in 2026, compared with 399 at the same point last year—an increase of just 2.01%.

But that modest year-to-date increase doesn’t erase the slowdown we saw in October. And when sales are declining at the same time as prices, it’s difficult to argue that sellers are operating in a market with much negotiating power.

Expired listings are still piling up

One statistic that continues to stand out is the number of homes that have come off the market without selling.

Year to date, there have been 189 expired listings, compared with 141 at the same point in 2025. That’s an increase of more than 34%.

Meanwhile, new listings have increased by just 1.57%.

That’s a pretty significant difference.

It suggests that the challenge isn’t necessarily a massive influx of new properties hitting the market. Rather, a growing number of sellers are struggling to find buyers at the prices they’re hoping to achieve.

Even though October’s monthly expired listings were lower than last year, the year-to-date trend is still concerning. Nearly 50 more listings have expired so far this year than at the same point in 2025.

For sellers, that’s an important reminder that simply putting a property on the market doesn’t guarantee a sale. Pricing, presentation and marketing strategy matter enormously in today’s conditions.

Homes are taking longer to sell and buyers aren’t paying asking price

Another indicator worth watching is how long properties are sitting on the market.

The year-to-date average days on market has climbed to 50.8 days, compared with 46.7 days last year. That’s an increase of nearly 9%.

In other words, sellers are waiting longer to secure a buyer.

And there’s another telling statistic in the report: the sale-price-to-list-price ratio.

According to the 10-year chart on page five, homes are currently selling for an average of approximately 96.37% of their asking price. That’s lower than the 2025 figure and the lowest reading shown on the chart over the past decade.

That means buyers are, on average, negotiating below asking price rather than paying a premium.

When you combine longer selling times with a lower sale-to-list price ratio, it becomes increasingly difficult to describe the market as one where buyers and sellers have equal negotiating power.

So, is it really a balanced market?

This is where I think the report’s “balanced market” designation deserves a closer look.

The report bases its classification on a year-to-date sales-to-listings ratio of 39.32%, which is technically just above its 39% balanced-market threshold.

But being 0.32 percentage points above a benchmark doesn’t necessarily mean the market is genuinely balanced.

Consider the other indicators:

• October unit sales are down 12.2% compared with October 2025.
• October sales volume is down 14.66%.
• October’s median sale price is down 4.52%.
• The year-to-date median sale price is down 7.62%.
• Year-to-date expired listings are up 34.04%.
• Average days on market are up nearly 9%.

Homes are selling for approximately 96.37% of their asking price, the lowest figure shown in the report’s 10-year chart.

That’s a lot of evidence pointing toward a market where sellers are under pressure.

The strongest argument in favour of the balanced-market label is that year-to-date sales are up 2.01%, while new listings are up only 1.57%. But those are relatively small increases, and they don’t tell us how much negotiating power buyers and sellers actually have.

A market can sit just above a statistical threshold and still feel very different on the ground.

My take? Balanced on paper, but still leaning toward buyers in practice.

What does this mean for buyers?

For buyers, the current market offers some opportunities that simply weren’t as common during the more competitive years.

With median prices down, homes taking longer to sell and the average sale price coming in below asking, buyers have more room to take their time, compare properties and negotiate.

That doesn’t mean every property is a bargain. Desirable homes that are priced appropriately and presented well can still attract attention.

But buyers generally have more options and less pressure to make a rushed decision. It’s a market where doing your homework and negotiating carefully can make a real difference.

What does this mean for sellers?

For sellers, the message is becoming increasingly clear: the market is not going to reward unrealistic pricing.

With the year-to-date median sale price down more than 7.5%, expired listings up 34% and average selling times continuing to climb, it’s important to understand what buyers are actually willing to pay—not simply what a neighbour’s home sold for a year or two ago.

Overpricing can mean fewer showings, longer time on the market and, eventually, an expired listing.

A well-presented home with a realistic asking price can absolutely sell. But sellers need to be prepared to meet the market where it is today.

The bottom line

October wasn’t a particularly encouraging month for the local real estate market.

Sales were down, prices declined again, and the year-to-date median sale price remains significantly below last year’s level. Add in the growing number of expired listings, longer selling times and homes selling below asking price, and it’s difficult to see how sellers can feel that market conditions are truly balanced.

Yes, year-to-date sales are slightly ahead of last year, and the report’s formula technically places us in balanced-market territory. But a balanced statistic doesn’t necessarily translate into a balanced experience for buyers and sellers.

For Elora, Fergus and surrounding areas, the evidence continues to suggest that buyers have the advantage.

For sellers, realistic pricing and a strong marketing strategy are more important than ever. For buyers, patience and negotiation may be rewarded.

And until we start seeing more consistent improvements in prices, sales activity and selling conditions, I wouldn’t be too quick to call this a balanced market.

Full Report: Royal LePage® Royal City, Brokerage. Centre Wellington Market Report. October 2026: